These actions could decarbonise the EU by 2050

Continued cost-competitiveness will accelerate the growth of solar and wind power towards 2050 according to Statkraft’s annual Green Transition Scenarios report. The report confirms that it is more affordable to transition than to continue with an energy system with emissions. Here, the analysts share the additional actions needed for EU to decarbonise.

The energy transition can’t be stopped, but it may delayed compared to what is required to reach the Paris goals. Even in a delayed case, however, the transition holds large benefits for society compared to the status quo.
Therein lies the essence of Statkraft’s annual Green Transition Scenarios 2024, a report projecting the actions necessary to decarbonise the EU and the world by 2050

Authors of the Green Transition Scenarios 2024, **Mari Viddal** and **Torjus Bolkesjø**

The EU in focus

This year, now in its 9th edition, the report takes a special look at the EU’s energy future.

“Cost competitiveness continues to drive the shift away from fossil fuels to renewable energy”, says Statkraft’s Head of Global Energy Drivers, Torjus Bolkesjø.

“Our report projects a continued acceleration of renewable development across all scenarios.”

“In the scenario with an accelerated transition (referred to as the Green Transition Scenario in our report), for example, power generation from solar and wind alone grow by eight and five times respectively”, he adds.

An EU energy action list

The EU is a global front-runner in climate action. To date, the region’s greenhouse gas emissions have decreased by one-third compared to 1990 levels (2022), while the economy has grown by approximately two-thirds in the same period. Still, a significant to-do list remains to reach the region’s 2050 targets.

“The energy transition in Europe won’t stop, but its pace may vary”, explains analyst and lead author of the report, Mari Gross Viddal. “Our analysis finds that the difference in speed lies in some specific actions.”

Below, we have highlighted four of those actions.

The full list can be found in the EU section of the report.

1. Accelerate build out of renewable electricity

Renewables are already the cheapest sources of new energy, and costs are expected to further decline. Our Green Transition Scenario projects solar and wind power generation alone to increase 8 and 5 times respectively by 2050.

2. Drive energy efficiency and behavioural change

Increased energy efficiency and enabling of behavioural change across the economy can result in some significantly positive changes: lower energy bills for consumers, less air pollution, reduced pressure on nature and decreased emissions. In our Green Transition Scenario, final energy demand in the EU is reduced by 36%

3. Enable faster electrification

Our analysis sees sectors such as transport, buildings, and industry transitioning significantly from fossil fuels to electricity by 2050. Comparing the report’s Green Transition Scenario with the Delayed Scenario, the transition of these sectors could account for 55% of additional emission cuts by 2050. This requires national policies that prioritise electrification, enabling, for example, acceleration in the use of electric heating systems.

4. Fast and parallel build out of clean, flexible energy solutions

Building flexible energy solutions in parallel to the build-out of intermittent resources such as wind and solar is a manageable challenge. Our analysis takes Germany as an example, where a doubling of flexibility capacity is needed to 2050 where system batteries and interconnectors are the largest contributors.

As the report projects, the continued decline of fossil fuels in the coming decades is a certainty. So too is their replacement by renewable technologies. This represents a win-win-win transition for the region, as Bolkesjø explains. "Developing a renewable dominated energy system is the fastest and cheapest way to a resilient, affordable and climate friendly European energy system."

That would be good news for Europe, and good news for Europeans.

Click here to access the full Green Transition Scenarios 2024 and to read more about the report's projections for the European energy system towards 2050.